Buoyed by robust signals from the United States and the looming possibility of a European Central Bank (ECB) rate reduction, early trading experienced an uplift. The durability of this optimistic outlook, however, hinges on subsequent interest rate forecasts. Prior to the ECB’s pivotal rate decision, the DAX climbed by 0.6%, reaching 18,686 points in early trading. Yesterday, the leading index closed with a 0.9% gain at 18,575.94 points, having previously touched a four-week low. The U.S. labor market data spurred hopes for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, as American companies created fewer jobs in May than expected.
Spotlight on ECB Rate Decision
Today’s primary focus rests on the ECB’s rate announcement. The ECB is anticipated to reduce rates by a quarter-point this afternoon, marking the first such cut since autumn 2019. Thomas Altmann of QC-Partners indicates that a rate cut is already reflected in the market. The central bank chief will need to articulate future plans, and investors will be attentive to every nuance. Signals regarding the ECB’s future trajectory will be crucial for investors. However, a series of rate cuts is not widely anticipated. “It might be a rate cut accompanied by rhetoric and projections aimed at curbing market expectations for further cuts anytime soon, making another cut in July improbable,” comments Konstantin Oldenburger, a market expert at CMC Markets. Will the ECB’s decision continue to buoy the market? “It remains uncertain whether the ECB will kindle enough enthusiasm for rate cuts to further bolster the market and possibly test its all-time high,” noted experts at Helaba in their daily commentary.
Industrial Sector Concerns Persist
Concurrently, the German industrial sector continues to signal frailty. In April, it recorded a fourth consecutive decline in orders, with new business contracting by 0.2% compared to the previous month, as per the Federal Statistical Office. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% increase. “The April figure alone is not disastrous, as it was merely a minor decline. Excluding large orders, there would have been a significant rise,” says Jens-Oliver Niklasch, an economist at LBBW. Nonetheless, the figure underscores the economy’s struggle to regain momentum. “Based on the data available so far, the second quarter is likely to have been weaker than the first,” Niklasch adds.
Rate Cut Expectations Propel Wall Street
Renewed hopes for U.S. rate cuts and a surge in tech stocks following recent U.S. labor market data fueled rising prices on Wall Street yesterday. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at record highs on Wednesday. Nvidia’s market value surpassed the $3 trillion mark for the first time, overtaking Apple, with only Microsoft now more valuable than the AI chip specialist.
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